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OUR 2024 ELECTION FORECAST

2024 ELECTION FORECAST

TRUMP HEAD.png

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Donald Trump is favored to win the 2024 Presidential Election

2024 BATTLEGROUNDS

 Nevada

R+10

Arizona

R+7

Wisconsin

R+8

Pennslyvania

R+6

Michigan

R+7

Colorado

D+4

New York

D+6

Virginia

R+1

New Mexico

R+2

Minnesota

R+1.5

New Hampshire

R+2.5

New Jersey

D+1.5

Maine

D+2

Yes, this election won't be close

UPDATED: JULY 10TH, 2024

The media, the talking heads, and the pundits claim that this election will be close and will come down to the traditional swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. However, these key indicators we use to predict US Elections indicate Trump is winning in a landslide in the electoral college. These are the following indicators: 

National Polling and Historical Polling Errors During The Trump Era

As of June 26, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in the latest 5-Way RCP Aggregate by 2.6%, Joe Biden exactly four years ago was polling ahead of Trump by 9.5% Nationally, and Hilary Clinton eight years ago was polling of ahead of Trump by 6.7%. Joe Biden defeated President Trump by 4.5% in National Popular Vote, Indicating a 5% Polling Error as of Today for the 2020 Presidential Election, Hilary only won by 2.1% in the National Popular Vote, showing a 4.6% Polling Error as of Today for the 2016 Presidential Election, but still lost the electoral college. This is because many non-college White voters are always under-sampled in swing states where the election is decided by large amounts, as well as in nationally polling. With Donald Trump improving with African-Americans and Hispanics in this year's polling, we expect the national polling error to be around 4.51%, the same error we saw in 2020 when Biden led in our adjusted average by 9.01% against Donald Trump in the national average. Our current average has Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden in the national polling by 3.63% Applying the historical polling error of 4.5% in favor of Democrats to the our current average, we have a popular vote victory of +8.14 for Former President Donald Trump, which is an 11.3% shift towards Trump nationally from the 2020 Presidential Election!

2024 Polling Aggregate 5-Way (1-Month)

Raw Avg: +64.0 Rep / 20 polls = +3.20 Trump

Adj Avg: +54.4 Rep / 15 pollsters = +3.63 Trump

 

CBS News(1): +4 Rep / 1 = Trump +4

WSJ(1): +6 Rep / 1 = Trump +6

CNN(1): +6 Rep / 1 = Trump +6

USA Today/Suffolk(1): +3 Rep / 1 = Trump +3

Harvard-Harris(1): +8 Rep / 1 = Trump +8

I&I/TIPP(1): +1 Dem / 1 = Biden +1

Economist/YouGov(5): +7 Rep / 5 = Trump +1.4

NYT/Siena(2): +8 Rep / 2 = Trump +4

Quinnipiac(1): +6 Rep / 1 = Trump +6

Rasmussen(1): +10 Rep / 1 = Trump +10

FOX News(1): +1 Dem / 1 = Biden +1

New York Post(1): +2 Dem / 1 = Biden +2

NPR/PBS/Marist(1): +1 Rep /1 = Trump +1

Emerson(1): +4 Rep / 1 = Trump +4

Forbes/HarrisX(1): +5 Rep / 1 = Trump +5

Now, of course, using that in our argument alone isn't good enough, the next four indicators will be CRUCIAL in our 2024 Presidential Election Forecast!

Approval Ratings of Both President Biden & President Trump

As of June 26, Donald Trump has a 42.1% Approval Rating, Joe Biden has a 41.0% Approval Rating.

Here is a history of the past few cycles of President's approval ratings on Election Day and Their National Popular Vote Share:

Trump 2020 Approval: 46% —> Trump 2020 Vote Share: 46.9%

Obama 2012 Approval: 50.0% —> Obama 2012 Vote Share: 51.1%

Bush 2004 Approval: 49.5% —> Bush 2012 Vote Share: 50.7%

*Clinton 1996 Approval: 54% —> Clinton 1996 Vote Share: 49.2%

 

Trump Approval (RCP): 43.4% (3.9% Less Than 2020)

Biden Approval (RCP): 39.0% (11.6% Less Than 2020)

 

You can see there is a correlation between the National Popular Vote Share of an Incumbent President and their approval rating on Election Day. This would indicate that Trump would win by 4.4% in the National Popular Vote. However, since third parties are gathering about 8-13% combined in National Polling, the fact hat Bill Clinton did FIVE POINTS worse than his approval rating in 1996 due to Ross Perot getting around 8% of the National Popular Vote, and the fact that Trump has never gotten below or above 46%-47% in a National Election in the Popular Vote, the popular vote can range anywhere from 7.4%-11.4% for Donald Trump depending on Trump's performance on election according to this breakdown, showing that a Trump +9.4 popular vote margin would be the median result of this modeling, only 0.96% off from our popular vote forecast of Trump +8.14!

Cross-Examining NYT/Siena College & OnPoint/SoCal 2024 Polling and Who Their Respondents They Voted For In 2020

The past year of New York Times / Siena College Polling, despite the NYT being a liberal/Democrat leaning organization, has been very useful to our analysis because they are the ONLY Pollster we have seen that samples voters for their voting choice of this election year while ALSO polling them for who they previously for in the 2020 Presidential Election! 

When you cross-examine the previous polls they've conducted and compare the national shift from their 2020 sample to their 2024 sample, the average shift is +11.25 Points in favor of Donald Trump, which is ALMOST IDENTICAL to our +11.3 Point shift towards Donald Trump!

NYT/Siena Polling Data:

Shift From 2020 To 2024:

November 2023: Biden +4 → Trump +4 = +8 point Republican shift

March 2024: Biden +12 → Trump +5 = +17 point Republican shift

April 2024: Biden +8 → Trump +2 = +10 point Republican shift 

May 2024: Biden +3 → Trump +7 = +10 point Republican shift

June 2024: Biden+5 → Trump+7 = +12 point Republican Shift 

July 2024: Biden+4 → Trump+7 = +11 point Republican Shift 

Average Shift From 2020 To 2024:

+11.3 point Rep shift

OnPoint/SoCal Polling Data:

Shift From 2020 To 2024:

June 2024: Biden +5.4 → Trump +5.8 = +11.2 point Rep shift

Our Swing From 2020:
+12.6 Point Republican Shift

The Huge Influence of RFK JR. and Other Third Party Candidates

The head to head aggregate for Donald Trump only has him up 1% against Joe Biden according to RCP! We have not created an adjusted aggregate for this scenario since RFK Jr. and multiple 3rd Parties will be affecting the ballot. However, do acknowledge that the election WOULD be an effective tossup if Donald Trump and Joe Biden were the only candidates during this election cycle. The election would come down to the traditional swing states like most media outlets, pundits, and talking heads proclaim this election cycle will be. It is apparent that RFK Jr. takes away more votes from President Biden than President Trump because ever since RFK Jr. has fallen from 16% (November 15th, 2023) to 7.3% (June 26th, 2024), Biden has gone from just 35.0% to 40.0% in the same time span, whereas Trump has gone from 39.5% to 42.6% in that same time span, showing that Biden is hurt more by RFK Jr. than Donald Trump is hurt by RFK Jr.

Although RFK Jr's splitting of voters to him is more complicated than most years, the other three third party candidates, which are Jill Stein the Green Party Candidate, Cornell West an Independent Candidate, and Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party Candidate, are way more liberal leaning than Trump and Biden. Historically, Presidents suffer losses with high turnout party and we expect these three candidates to take away votes from Joe Biden due to his status as a Incumbent President, as well his perceived failure on the Israel-Hamas Conflict with progressive voters who would have voted for other options like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren during the 2020 Democrat Primaries.

Primary Turnout From 2024 and Comparing It To 2020

Both major party candidates are exactly the same this year as they were four years ago! Based on primary turnout from both parties the past two cycles, we see that Donald Trump would be favored to win the national popular by +6.1!

2024 Primary Turnout

Trump: 16.9 Million Votes (+8.2) —> Trump +8.2

Biden: 14.3 Million Votes

 

2020 Primary Turnout

Biden: 19.1 Million Votes (+2.4)

Trump: 18.2 Million Votes

If you subtract the popular vote margin of the 2020 Primary Turnout from Biden +4.5 on Election Day, if you have a 2.1% Error that Underestimates Biden. If you were to apply that to Trump's +8.2 Lead in Primary Turnout this year, he would lead by +6.1%, 0.7% from our projected forecast of Trump +6.8!

BIGGEST TAKE AWAY FROM OUR ANALYSIS

Of course, we understand that all of this is subject to change and that the results could differ and there is definitely a possibility for margin of error. However, we do expect Former President Trump by AT LEAST 312 Electoral College Votes as of right now! That includes him taking Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia from President Biden from the 2020 Presidential Election!

Right now, we believe Trump is approaching an electoral college landslide and we have been transparent with our methodology as to how we have come to this conclusion. The media, talking heads, and pundits don't know how to analyze their own polling data and we felt the responsibility to put out our own forecast! 

 

INDIVIDUAL STATE BREAKDOWNS ARE COMING SOON AS THEY ARE NOT AVAILABLE AS OF RIGHT NOW!

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