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OUR 2024 ELECTION FORECAST
2024 ELECTION MODEL
ON POINT POLITICS
UPDATED: OCT 19, 9:00 PM EST
ELECTION BY LESTER TELLEZ, OWNER OF ON POINT POLITICS | WEBSITE CREATED BY BRANDON PYLE
CLICK TO GET ESTIMATED STATE MARGINS AND TURNOUT
Our Model Explained
My election model compromises of three different margins that produce the current one you see as the final margin.
1. Polling Average / Personal Estimate:
My polling average/personal projection for each state is factored in the model. My polling averages are a readjusted average based on my projected target Party ID, and all of the polls going back a month are re-weighed to eliminate as much polling bias as humanly possible!
Public Displaying Of Polling Averages Besides Google Sheets Will Come Soon!
2. Demographic Margins
We have found the population of White, Black, Hispanic, and Others voters and decided what we think the margins will be and that margin is also factored into the model.
3. Non-Partisan Leaning + Popular Vote
I also have an average for the National Popular Vote which I apply to every single state after the trends are found between 2000 to 2020 through each cycle. The average change in each state's "relative to the nation" voting between those cycles are applied to the 2020 Numbers and produce the last part of the margin.
These three margins are averaged out to get the final average you see on your screen!
The Model Tested To 2020
When applying what listed about to the 2020 Election, this allows us to
predict the election with 100% Accuracy. The range depending on how accurate our demographic model would've been can range from a Trump win of 289-249 to Biden with 321-217. The default settings of the Demographic Model are the correct margins for the 2020 Elections, so we use the default settings to test it to 2020. I have no polling averages for 2020 except the National Level, in which the National Average is applied to the third part of the model and helps me predict the election accurately. My own personal projections are placed in as well and this is the map we get:
Actual 2020 Results
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